Heating Oil Price Outlook, Winter 2026–27

From the Alcus family · Alcus Fuel Oil & Sons, Amityville · Updated November 1, 2026

What the government's energy forecasters expect for heating oil this winter, where to watch prices week by week, and the practical ways to spend less. Facts only: we don't make price predictions.

What EIA forecasts for winter 2026–27

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6, 2026. For U.S. households that heat with oil, for November 2026 through March 2027, EIA forecast:

• Average price: $5.26 a gallon, about 34% more than last winter.
• Average spending: about $2,115 per household for the winter, up about 21%.
• Oil used: about 402 gallons, about 9% less than last winter, because EIA expects a warmer winter in the Northeast.

EIA's monthly path in that forecast starts highest in November ($5.79) and eases to $4.84 by March. That is EIA's forecast, not ours, and EIA updates it every month. Its next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due November 10, 2026.

Why EIA expects higher prices

EIA points to tight supplies of distillate fuel (the family that includes heating oil and diesel): less refining worldwide, and low U.S. distillate stocks going into winter. EIA said East Coast distillate inventories were well below their five-year average in September. EIA also notes that changes in wholesale prices usually show up in retail prices over about four to six weeks.

About 3% of U.S. homes heat with oil, most of them in the Northeast, so these numbers matter a lot on Long Island.

Where to watch prices each week

From October through March, EIA publishes a weekly Heating Oil and Propane Update with residential prices by state, including New York. For the week of October 26, 2026, EIA reported an average residential heating oil price of $6.441 a gallon in New York and $6.233 for the U.S. EIA's prices exclude taxes and are statewide averages, so they won't match any one company's price.

Our part: today's price

Nobody can predict prices; we don't offer price locks. What we can do is show you today's price, every day.

See how our price has moved on the heating oil price history page, and read when to buy heating oil for timing tips.

Ways to spend less this winter

• Use less oil. A tuned burner, a lower thermostat at night and sealed drafts add up: how to use less heating oil.
• Pay cash. Cash to the driver is 20¢ a gallon less than card. Cards are taken online or by phone; we don't take checks.
• Order a bigger delivery. Larger deliveries cost less per gallon. See the price at every delivery size.
• Apply for HEAP. The 2026–27 HEAP season opens November 2, 2026, and we accept HEAP. See our HEAP page.

Questions? Call the office at 631-264-8800 (Mon–Fri 8–4:30, Sat 8–12).

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook and press release (October 6, 2026) and Heating Oil and Propane Update (week of October 26, 2026). Last reviewed November 1, 2026.

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